Is the second great shakeout in craft brewing here? And what, exactly, does that have to do with Founders Frootwood Cherry Ale Aged in Maple Syrup Bourbon Barrels? I promise, I will tie it all together shortly. First, though, the possible shakeout. The last great shakeout in craft beer was in the 1990s. Back then, demand for craft beer was far less than it is today, but the situation was similar to what is happening today: supply was growing faster than demand.

The great Adam Smith, who was not averse to using brewers and beer to demonstrate economic principles, would be the first to tell you that demand and supply are intricately linked. As demand grows, as has been happening with craft beer year over year, so will supply. More producers will enter the market to meet the growing demand, and so supply increases as well. The danger arises when the rate of increase in supply out paces increase in demand.

Demand, it should be pointed out, certainly continues to grow. The Brewers Association, self-appointed watchdog on the American craft beer market, published these figures on craft beer volume in 2017:

2009 9.1 Million Barrels

2010 10.1 Million Barrels

2011 11.5 Million Barrels

2012 13.2 Million Barrels

2013 15.6 Million Barrels

2014 22.1 Million Barrels

2015 24.3 Million Barrels

2016 24.6 Million Barrels

Most immediately, one notices that the growth in volume for 2016 is alarmingly small, only 300,000 barrels. Part of this, however, can be attributed to how the Brewers Association defines craft brewers. For example, breweries purchased by megabrewers are not included. So, when Anheuser Busch bought Elysian Brewing in 2015 (then producing about 50,000 barrels), it’s volume would presumably no longer be included in the “craft beer” volume. This in spite of the fact they brew the same beer they did before the buyout.

We can calculate the growth volume year over year from the volume figures:

2010 1 Million Barrels, 11% growth

2011 1.4 Million Barrels, 13.9% growth

2012 1.7 Million Barrels, 14.8% growth

2013 2.4 Million Barrels, 18.2% growth

2014 6.5 Million Barrels, 41.7% growth

2015 2.2 Million Barrels, 10% growth

2016 300,000 Barrels, 1.2% growth

Clearly, growth has slowed over the last few years, although some of that may be due to the amazing growth exhibited in 2014. It will be interesting to see the figures for 2017 when they are released in a few months. Continued slow growth is highly possible; a decline is not out of the question.

The growth in the number of craft breweries has been impressive as well. Also from the Brewers Association:

2009 1596

2010 1749

2011 1977

2012 2420

2013 2898

2014 3743

2015 4504

2016 5234

We can extrapolate the number of active breweries and total growth each year:

2010 Up 153, 9.6% growth

2011 Up 228, 13% growth

2012 Up 443, 22.4% growth

2013 Up 478, 19.8% growth

2014 Up 845, 29.2% growth

2015 Up 761, 20.3 % growth

2016 up 730, 16.2% growth

We can see that since 2012, growth in number of brewers has exceeded the growth rate of demand. This ia lagging response, as new breweries are planned years in advance and it takes time to work out the ones in progress as possible new entrants see slowing growth and reconsider plans. Then too, the number of breweries does not represent capacity well, which also is a consideration.

Let’s take a look at the barrels produces per brewery year over year

2009 5702

2010 5775

2011 5817

2012 5455

2013 5383

2014 5904

2015 5395

2016 4700

This is the clearest view of what is happening in the market. Though more beer is demanded, the average produced per brewer is down 1000 barrels a brewer. That is substantial indeed, a 17.5% drop. And that, my friends, is where Founders Frootwood comes in. I was pondering the dynamics of the craft beer market as I was sipping it, because, quite frankly, it had been on tap at Taco Mac a few weeks before I ordered a glass.

The day was when specialty beers like this would disappear a few days after rollout. Indeed, in 2017 I managed to find Founders KBS and Founders CBS on tap at Taco Mac-the latter on two separate visits! Buying beer at Total Wine on Black Friday, I found a table filled with bottles of Bourbon County Brand Coffee Stout and a few other variations on the base beer. This had never happened before. Usually, one would have to wait in line or get on a list to try these beers.

So who will be most impacted by the “shakeout”? Some small brewers will undoubtedly close (and some already have). The trend, however, seems to favor them and super local beer over regionals and large craft brewers. People are still lining up for specialty releases from the little guys, and they can still command outrageous prices. A recent trip to Target (and their prices run lower than average on craft beer) found a 4-pack of a Wild Heaven Gravitational Waves imperial stout commanding an astonishing $24.99 for a four-pack of 12 ounce cans and a half liter bottle of Cherry Street 5^th Anniversary imperial stout for an even more outrageous $14.99. I passed on both of them. That small brewers can charge such prices, however, tends to imply people are still paying such prices.

That leaves the larger craft brewers and regionals. With their larger facilities, greater capacities, larger payrolls, multi-state distribution, and expensive logistics, they will be left more vulnerable to a dwindling piece of the pie. Indeed, we are already seeing this in 2018, as within a week New Hampshire’s Smuttynose has announced it will be up for bank auction in March, Green Flash of California and Virginia is pulling out of 32 states, and Mendocino Brewing of California has closed its doors on both of its breweries.

Will Founders be affected? They are one of the most highly regarded breweries in the country, so may be insulated, but only time will tell. I’m glad I enjoyed a Frootwood all the same. Who knows if it will be around again? I’m already worried I may never drink another Smuttynose or Mendocino beer.

Founders says of Frootwood on their website:

We took a crisp, light-bodied cherry ale and hid it away in oak barrels that have held both bourbon and maple syrup. After a lengthy stint, it emerged a changed beer, blanketed in notes of warm vanilla and earthy sweetness. The wood proves itself the star of this beer, adding depth and taming the tart cherry while the maple imposes a velvety texture that lingers for not a moment too long.

Founders Frootwood Cherry Ale Aged in Maple Syrup Bourbon Barrels has an alcohol content of 8% by volume. I paid $9 for an 11-ounce glass at Taco Mac, and it runs $12.99 for a 4-pack at Total Wine.

Founders Frootwood Cherry Ale Aged in Maple Syrup Bourbon Barrels pours to a bright pinkish red color with a thin layer of foam and Founders bright cherries and cream in the nose. Taking a sip, the beer offers tart cherry and almonds in the palate, vanilla, hints of woody oak, bright berry cherry too all playing off of a smooth and creamy body. There’s a tart finish, too, and overall I found this one to be delightful.

On its own merits I would give it 4 ½ stars but I will take one back for the high price. Would I buy it again? I would. If I get the chance, that is.

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